After wintry mix to southeast today, quiet week; some interest in next Sunday-Monday for possible snow – Roanoke Times

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The winter weather advisory has been expanded to include counties as far west as the Blue Ridge such as Carroll, Floyd and Franklin.
UPDATE 10:25 AM, 2/8/2022: Some light wintry precipitation — snow, sleet and freezing rain — has been occurring in parts of the Roanoke and New River valleys this morning. Patchy light precipitation may occur until midday with minor amounts, but it doesn’t take much for icy patches to form on bridges and overpasses, particularly. The winter weather advisory continues for localities to the south and east where more widespread light wintry precipitation is occurring. Beware of possible icy spots if traveling this morning. END UPDATE
Ice is closer than you may realize with a partly cloudy sunrise in the Roanoke area on this Monday morning. The rest of the week looks dry and even a bit mild, waiting to see if Valentine’s Day makes or breaks hearts with wintry weather.
On this Monday, a low-pressure system is brushing our region to the southeast, bringing some icy morning mix to the Triad area of North Carolina. A winter weather advisory is up for Southside localities from Martinsville and Henry County eastward through Pittsylvania County and Danville to Halifax County, where enough freezing rain or sleet may fall this morning to cause icing on some roadways. The moisture from this storm system is meeting dry air aloft the farther northwest it pushes. It would not be out of the question for areas south and east of Roanoke, along and east of the Blue Ridge, to get brief rain, freezing rain, sleet or a stray snowflake, with temperatures moderating above freezing by afternoon in most areas. Something to be aware of if traveling in those areas.
UPDATE 8:50 AM: The winter weather advisory has been expanded to include counties as far west as the Blue Ridge, including Floyd, Franklin and Carroll, for possible light wintry mix this morning. END UPDATE
Beyond today, there isn’t much active weather to talk about this week. Temperatures will climb into the 50s for highs many days this week with abundant sunshine, dropping into the 20s and 30s at night. A cold front arrives to pull temperatures back down this weekend.
Around Sunday or Monday, which is Valentine’s Day, the atmospheric pattern will have a trough of low pressure in the northern branch of the jet stream with a shortwave riding through the southern branch. If these two systems can align, a winter storm could develop in this time period. Some wintry precipitation may be possible even if they don’t quite align, or they could zoom out to sea with only minor mountain flurries. Forecast guidance is very inconsistent and widely scattered on whether a winter storm or at least a brush of wintry precipitation may develop in our region. For now, we’ll keep it as period of interest to watch and see how things develop with it this week.
Long range, over the latter half of February, the expected atmospheric pattern doesn’t scream winter nor does it scream early spring over our region. High pressure in the West that has led to periodic cold shots being pushed through is flattening, and the trend at this point would seem generally milder and drier for the latter half of February. But there may be just enough intervening cold fronts and storm systems for chances of rain or, if short-term setups happen to line up in a certain way, something wintry.
If you’re wanting either several days in the 70s or hard winter to set in, February looks disappointing as of now.
Contact Kevin Myatt at Follow him on Twitter @kevinmyattwx.
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Since 2003, Kevin Myatt has penned the weekly Weather Journal column, and since 2006, the Weather Journal blog, which becomes particularly busy with snow. Kevin has edited a book on hurricanes and has helped lead Virginia Tech students on storm chases.
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The winter weather advisory has been expanded to include counties as far west as the Blue Ridge such as Carroll, Floyd and Franklin.
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